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Inventory is swelling: new homes for sale have surged to the highest levels since the early 1970s in the region, creating a buyer’s market with nearly 10 months’ supply on hand miamirealtors.com.
Listings now exceed demand: Redfin reports nearly 500,000 more sellers than buyers nationwide, with the Southeast among the hardest hit—triggering historic supply-demand imbalances wsj.com+1nypost.com+1.

Pandemic-era hotspots are correcting: Florida’s Cape Coral and many metros like Tampa, Jacksonville, Austin, New Orleans, and San Antonio are seeing price contractions—ranging from modest to nearly 4% declines year-over-year realtor.com+15thehomeatlas.com+15wsj.com+15.
Multiple factors at play: Elevated mortgage rates (~6.8%), rising insurance/property taxes (especially in hurricane-prone Florida), and an oversupply of new construction are pressuring pricesbusinessinsider.com+1wsj.com+1.
Some metros remain pockets of strength: South Florida luxury market continues modest price growth due to affluent cash buyers, even as broader middle‑market activity slows nypost.com.

Florida: Price declines of ~1–2% statewide, with steeper drops in cities like Jacksonville and Cape Coral. Listings, price cuts, and slow-moving properties are common .
Texas & Louisiana: Similar downward pressure; Austin, San Antonio, New Orleans all report ~0.3–4% YoY price drops .
Southeast overall: Cooling extending beyond these states, with rising inventory and slower turnover across the region cashflowrentals.net+1thehomeatlas.com+1.

Rental markets gaining ground: With homebuying suppressed by high rates, Southeast cities are seeing a construction surge in multifamily housing. Vacancy rates remain near long-term levels, offering opportunities for renters .
Subdued price growth for renters: New supply is keeping rental cost increases modest (around –0.1% to +1.5%), particularly in suburban and build-to-rent developments avisonyoung.us+1charlotte.uli.org+1.

Buyer-favored conditions may persist: Elevated rates and excess supply suggest ongoing buyer leverage—expect further price adjustments unless demand improves .
Rates could ease later in 2025: Analysts (e.g., Miami Realtors®, J.P. Morgan) foresee rates dipping to ~6.3–6.7% by year’s end, which may support market stabilization and modest price growththehomeatlas.com+9miamirealtors.com+9miamirealtors.com+9.
Long-term divergence likely: While heated areas may bounce back slowly, more affordable, employment‑driven markets (think emerging suburbs) could see steadier growth .

Market FactorStatus Mid‑2025 in Southeast

SalesFalling sharply

InventoryNear multi-decade highs

Prices (pandemic-boom areas)Declining YoY (~1–4%)

Luxury CoastalRelatively resilient

RentalsModest growth, more supply

ForecastStabilizing late 2025 if rates ease

Traditional buyer–seller dynamics have reversed—buyers hold the leverage.

Pandemic surges are unwinding, especially in previously overbought markets.

Rentals remain viable, with rising supply and stabilizing rents.

Mid‑ to late‑2025 pivotal: a slight dip in interest rates could mark the turning point.